Experience Won

So I decided to go to Diamond Lil’s yesterday and play $8/$16 for a change.  It was a good experience; however, I only made $45 for 3 hours of play.  Technically, that’s at $15/hr, which is right at what I’m doing playing $3/$6, so I’m not unhappy.

I went with the knowledge that I’m willing to risk $400, which basically amounts to 2 buy-ins.  Most people seem to buy in for $200, which is one rack (100), of $2 chips.  It is essentially the same as playing $4/$8 with one rack of $1 chips (something I do frequently).  In fact, as I played I didn’t even think about the denominations of the chips, or the value of each bet; rather, I thought in terms of the number of bets.

I didn’t feel at all out of my league.  In fact, I saw some of the people I play $3/$6 with, at the $10/$20 table – people who I know don’t play well.  I felt confident at the $8/$16 table – enough that I felt like I stood a chance at making money from these people.  They tended to be tighter than the people at the $3/$6 tables, but not by much.  There were still fish at the table, and the good players were easy enough to recognize.  I was surprised that there were still people who played every hand; kind of like people I refer to as “any 2 cards” players.  These people tend to put a lot of money into the game, never folding bad hands preflop, and every once in a while they win big – but on average they slowly leak their money away.

I watched players at the $10/$20 table for a while, and felt like it wasn’t such a big jump to go from $8/$16 to $10/$20 – except my bankroll is woefully small for even $8/$16.  Still, as far as skill is concerned, I am confident I can play with these people and succeed.  I really wish that Diamond Lil’s was closer to my home.

This morning I played at The Caribbean again, $3/$6 limit, and came out $25 ahead for about 4 hours of play time.  What a grind!  I was reminded of the drastic differences between $8/$16 and $3/$6 – during one hand I was dealt pocket Aces, and raised preflop from middle position after 2 people limped in ahead of me.  A total of 6 players saw the flop – 3 people cold-called my raise in late position, and the big blind called, as well as the two early position limpers.  The flop came 4 of Hearts, 6 of Clubs, King of Diamonds.  I lead out betting, and I think 3 people called and 3 folded.

The turn was the eight of Spades, and one of the early position players bet out ahead of me.  I thought maybe she has a set of eights (3 of a kind); it’s a bold move to bet ahead of the aggressor with this kind of a board.  In fact, a good player would check, let me bet again, and then raise.  At any rate, I decided I would put her to the test and I raised, and she just called.  (That’s both confusing and suspicious, even at a low stakes table like $3/$6.)  Only the two of us saw the river, which was the 6 of diamonds.  Now the board paired, and I feared my opponent might have a full house.  She checked (even more confusing) and I called time to think about the situation.  She obviously didn’t understand the concept of check/raising, based on her actions on the turn; she either intended to check/raise me on the river (I don’t believe that) or she’s afraid of something.  If she had something like King, Eight and made two-pair on the turn, then she might be afraid that because the board paired, her two pair were counterfitted – but that only makes sense if she put me on Aces.  Otherwise, she would have to believe that her Kings were good.  What if she had something like 8, 4 and made two pair with that?  Then she might be afraid that her two pair, eights & fours were no good now that the board paired.  She might have put me on a high pocket pair, or even Ace-King and I have her beat.  That seemed to make the most sense to me, so I decided to bet out on the river.  It’s a little risky, but it definitely falls into the category of value bet.  I think I probably have her beat.  With a sigh she called.  I love it when my opponents sigh.

It turns out, yes, she did in fact have 8, 4 and made two pair on the turn.  My Aces & sixes stood up as the best hand.  Still, you don’t see many people calling a preflop raise with 8, 4 offsuit – or even 8, 4 suited at higher limits.  Those kinds of hands just don’t stand up often enough to be profitable.  Had the board not paired, I would have lost the hand.  That’s the thing about low limit poker; it’s a little unpredictable because your opponents can have almost anything!  It’s also the reason I do so well at $3/$6 – on average, at least a couple of people play bad enough to cold-call a raise preflop with horrible hands like 8, 4 offsuit.  The money those people put into the pot is called “dead money” and that is where so much of your profit comes from at low stakes poker.  That’s why I can take $15/hr from that game.  Still, you’re a lot less certain about the strength of your hand – It’s just as likely that my opponent could have held a 6 and made trip sixes to beat my Aces.  Even people who might otherwise be good players fall victim to the mentality that $3/$6 is nothing more than “bingo poker” and will decide to go ahead and join the crowd and play any 2 cards.  Those same people look at me suspiciously when I say that I actually make money at $3/$6, and have the records to prove it.  They just don’t believe it.  And I just keep taking their money.

In all, the only reason for staying at $3/$6 is the size of my bankroll.  It’s time for me to move up in limit to $8/$16.  I’m going to have to supplement my bankroll a little bit though, as I’m not going to be able to make enough playing $3/$6, fast enough.  In fact, I’m going to make it my goal to start playing at the $10/$20 as soon as I can bring my bankroll up to $6000.  After that, I’ll have to spend a lot of time at the $10/$20 tables; according to the “300XBB” rule, I’ll need $12000 to play at the $20/$40 tables – the highest limit tables in the state, except for Native American casinos.

Right now, those plans are a long ways away, and I have a lot to learn and a lot to earn before I can make those dreams into reality.  So for now, it’s back to the grind…

Decisions, Decisions!

During Fan Appreciation Weekend 2008, Sazzy asked me how much money I needed in order to play poker professionally.  It’s a good question; every player, even the very best, experience the inevitable ups and downs that come with gambling.  With poker, you want to do two things:

• Play better than your opponents.
• Have a big enough bankroll to survive inevitable losing streaks.

I answered Sazzy’s question saying that I would feel safe with $50,000 – as long as I’m debt free and have a separate emergency fund with 3-6 months of expenses set aside.

It is a general rule of thumb that you should have about 300 big bets to play limit poker.  So for instance, if you regularly play $3/$6 limit, you want to have a bankroll with at least $1800 ($6 X 300 = $1800).  This ensures that if you’re playing better than your opponents (a big qualifier there), you should be able to survive most losing streaks.

I’ve almost always kept my bankroll at right around $2000, thinking that it was about the right amount for $3/$6 limit.  Anything above and beyond that, I used for gadgets or poker supplies for my home poker room.  Lately my friend (The Consigliere) has encouraged me to start playing at higher limits, like $8/$16 at Diamond Lil’s in Renton.  The thing is, according to the 300XBB rule, I need $4800 to play seriously at the $8/$16 limit game.  Also, since moving up in limits generally means you’re playing with better players, the amount you make might decrease proportionally with the limit.  In other words, I average about $15/hr playing $3/$6.  That’s 2.5 X the Big Bet.  Playing with better players, I might only make 1 Big Bet per hour instead of 2.5; meaning if I were playing $5/$10 limit, that would only be $10/hr – actually be LESS than I make at $3/$6!

At any rate, I agree with my friend, except that I need to grow my bankroll before I can play seriously at $8/$16.  The thing is, I’m not really learning to play better at the $3/$6 tables – in fact, in many ways I may be picking up bad habits.  Still, it’s more profitable to me for the time being.

It’s an interesting decision:  do I play for money or do I play for experience?  If I play $3/$6, I’m trying to maximize my winnings and build a bankroll.  I’ve went with my friend to Diamond Lil’s and played $8/$16 for the experience, but always with the knowledge that I don’t really have a bankroll big enough for it.  Still, the experience is valuable.

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