A much needed update

Wow, there’s so much to write about!  I’m still grinding, working on building my bankroll.  $8/$16 is becoming less ominous, more familiar, and dare I say, easy?  I left Diamond Lil’s today with well over $1000; I felt more than a little uncomfortable carrying that much money out of a casino in a less than desirable part of town.  It’s kind of interesting; I had expected that $8/$16 would be a lot more difficult.  I had expected to have to make a lot more adjustments to style based on the players.  But for the past few weeks, I’ve found that playing more or less “by the book” has been the best strategy.  It’s easier to figure out who the good players are, and just be careful to choose my battles; focus my energy and chips on people who don’t play well, and I tend to do well.

I feel like limit Texas Hold’em has become pretty standard; I know the statistics really well, and I know pretty well when it’s appropriate to draw.  I’m surprised less and less by difficult decisions.  It seems like the decisions are pretty standard – pretty easy right now.

That’s not to say I’m good; I’m better than average, but I know so many ways that I’m weak and need to improve.  But I’m still in the beginning phases, where I’m building my bankroll and trying to move up the ranks.

There’s another player at Diamond Lil’s who I respect, and feel is also a better than average player.  He seems to be good enough that he could be playing at the $20/$40 tables, so I asked him today why he doesn’t play there.  His answer wasn’t a big surprise – the best players in the house are at the $20/$40 tables, so why not focus his energy on lesser players at the $8/$16 tables where there’s more dead money?  It made a lot of sense.

I feel like I need to play at the $20/$40 tables eventually – but I need to build up a significantly larger bankroll first.  In so many ways the $8/$16 game isn’t that much different from the $3/$6 or $4/$8 tables I’m used to playing at.  The players, on average, don’t seem to be that much better, and when I do encounter another player who is better than average they’re easy to identify.

I’m working on my tournament skills.  Tournament poker is so different from the grind of cash games.  In a cash game I can always dig back into my bankroll for another buy-in, but in a tournament you usually get only one chance.  So you have to time your moves and aggression just right.  I’ve been reading one of the Two Plus Two books:  “Tournament Poker for Advanced Players” by David Sklansky.  Sklansky is one of my favorite poker authors, and I can easily recommend any book published by Two Plus Two.  In “Tournament Poker,” Sklansky really clarifies some of the tournament concepts well.  Some of the concepts require that the other players are better on average, but this book has also been very helpful for the small tournaments I play in around the Seattle area.

I’m proud to say that I won the tournament last week at The Caribbean.  I’m starting to make the final table on a regular basis, and outplaying many of my opponents – to my surprise.

I’m not bragging; I know I have an awful lot to learn, and I’m anxious to read and practice as much as I can.  I am looking forward to entering the Women’s Event at the 2009 WSOP – I think if I can keep reading and practicing and playing and preparing, I might actually have a chance to cash.

On the brink…

So I’ve been diligently working to build my bankroll, and I’m now just shy of $4700; in fact, I have $125 left to reach my goal of having enough to play at $8/$16 on a regular basis.  This calculation assumes the rule of having a bankroll that is equal to or exceeds 300 times the big bet in order to justify playing.  At $8/$16, 300X16 = 4800.  I haven’t played in a couple of days, but the next time I play, hopefully I’ll reach that goal.  This means less time spent at The Caribbean, and more time down at Diamond Lil’s.  I hope I’m ready.  The last thing I want to do is start playing at a higher limit, against players who are so much better than I, that I just lose my bankroll.

Still, I am really crushing the $3/$6 and $4/$8 games at The Caribbean, earning somewhere in the range of $15-$20 per hour.  That’s equivalent to just over 3 big bets per hour, and the standard expectation is about 1-2 big bets per hour.

I’m optimistic about playing $8/$16; however, I’m pretty sure that since the players are generally better, I won’t be making 3 big bets per hour; possibly more like 1 or even less (possibly even negative at first, until I get the hang of playing with better players).

So I have been thinking about the game at The Caribbean, wondering if the players are really so bad that on average I am able to make so much from those games.  According to some of the Two Plus Two books, you should make about 1-2 big bets per hour if you’re playing better than your opponents, on average.  With some help from my friend and some discussions online, I’ve come to the conclusion that the expectation at places like The Caribbean increases because of the bad beat, and Monte Carlo jackpots.  Basically, the bad beat is paid out whenever somebody with either a full house consisting of Aces full of Kings is beat by a better hand (e.g. quads, straight flush, royal flush).  This happens rarely, so the bad beat generally builds up quite a bit.  Right now I believe it’s at about $26,000 at The Caribbean.  When the bad beat is hit, the person who lost the hand gets half of the jackpot amount; the person who won gets a quarter, and the remaining players at all of the tables split the remaining quarter.  This happens to be the rules for The Caribbean.  It is often different at other places.

Additionally, whenever players hit quads, a straight flush, or a royal flush, they are paid according to the Monte Carlo jackpots.

These jackpots cause a lot of “dead money” to exist in each and every pot because players are playing hands like suited connectors, small pocket pairs, and even one-off or worse suited connectors out of position.

I remember a few months ago when I hit two straight flushes in one night.  It was truly amazing; I know people who have never had a straight flush, and I somehow hit two in one night.  After that happened, I started playing suited connectors, to my surprise and horror, almost all of the time, even from early position.  I had to make a very conscious effort to stop; to play better than that!  To play this way is just adding extra money to the pot that you’re most likely not going to get back in that hand.  This is what dead money is.  It’s like somebody walking by the table and just tossing in some extra chips to reward the person who gets to take down the pot.  When people consistently play hands with little pot equity, and small chances of reward, especially out of position, they are basically doing just that:  adding extra money to the pot for the winner.

So it’s great that all this dead money exists in pots at The Caribbean; when you do get paid, it’s generally a lot more than you would normally get when players are playing better.  It’s also the case that your bankroll goes up and down a lot more, because players play almost anything.  Raising with pocket Aces will often still see 4-6 people call your raise to see the flop, which decreases the value of such a monster hand.  When you win, you win big, but there’s also a better chance for somebody to catch two pair or something that might beat an unimproved pocket pair like Aces or Kings.

At any rate, I feel like I’m crossing a strange kind of boundary; I feel like I probably felt the first time I walked onto the school bus.  It’s time to grow up, to go play with the more skilled players, some of whom are actually playing to earn their mortgage payments.  I’ve tentatively played their game a few times.  I’ve tested the water a little bit, and now I’m ready to jump in.

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