If only they played poker the way I think they should play…

…I’d win every hand!

I overheard a conversation at the tables today, and it is almost the same conversation I’ve heard so many times before that it’s getting pathetically old.  It went something like this:

Woman:  “Where have you been playing lately?”

Man:  “I’ve been playing 2/40 spread at The Moose.  It’s a better game.”

Woman:  “Can you really protect your hand?  I mean, can you prevent bad players from calling you down?”

Man:  “Well, sometimes you can, if they aren’t 3/6 players.  But if the 3/6 players play the spread game the way they play 3/6 then they’ll still call you down.”

You see, here’s the thing:  bad low limit players always think that they’re the shark among fish, and that their opponents always seem to “suck out” on them by making outrageous calls all the way to the river.

There’s some truth that people will call all the way in low limit games – but if you know the math, and you’re playing a tight/aggressive, smart game, you can come out ahead over the long run.  You see, poker is not a game of short-term results.  Poker is a game that rewards players who consistently make better decisions than their opponents.  As one book I read makes clear, in the short-term, luck is king.  In the long-term, skill is king.

So it got me to thinking – these players who always talk about how bad the opponents are, and how they would be winning players if only their opponents played smarter – why aren’t they playing at the no-limit tables?

There’s a kind of mockumentary movie about the World Series of Poker, called “The Grand.”  It’s a funny movie, but there’s a scene where one of the players, clearly mocking Phill Hellmuth, says something like “If only my opponents played poker the way I think they should play, I’d win every time!”

Table Talk and Other Curious Stuff

So I’ve been playing at the No-Limit tables a lot more lately.  My bankroll isn’t quite big enough, but I feel that I’m better on average than most of the players I’m against, and I’m actually close enough to the right size bankroll that I think I can make a go at it.  Just like at the $8/$16 Limit tables, it’s actually pretty easy to figure out who the tight/better than average players are and stay clear of them.  I can put my resources to work against the weaker opponents and make more money.

At any rate, I’ve been on a pretty great run lately.  It’s not normal by any means, and certainly no indication of my skill, but I’m up about $1800 just this weekend playing $2/$5 No-Limit.  There are both good and bad runs – I just happen to be on a good run, although it’s a fun ride!

So the following hand happened last night, against one of the weaker players at the table, who happened to be sitting directly to my left.  I have, and am fostering a pretty tight table image at the moment.  The better players are giving me plenty of respect, allowing me to bluff at the right opportunities – and I’m able to play “ABC” poker against the weaker players.  It’s actually an ideal table for me.

In this hand I’m under the gun (first to act preflop, after the blinds) and I look down at pocket Jacks.  The guy to my right, the Big Blind, is on a huge run – he’s up about $2000 in just the last couple of hours, and is throwing his weight around with skill.  I consider that I have pocket Jacks in the worst possible position preflop – I’m first to act.  Obviously I have to raise, so I decide to make it $25 – just over 3 x the Big Blind.  The guy on the big blind says, “Why did you have to go and do that?”  He’s joking, and I respond jokingly that I have to protect my hand.  We kind of joke with each other, but in the meantime the guy to my immediate left calls and I believe one other person calls.

At this point I’m thinking that my preflop raise did a good job of defining my hand, and isolating opponents.  None of the good players are in the hand with me, so this should be pretty easy to play.  I’m really hoping to flop a set (3 of a kind).  If I do flop a set I figure I’m going to probably try and trap one of my opponents.  Well, the flop came and it both delighted and scared me.  I did in fact flop a set – the board as 9 of Diamonds, 8 of Clubs, Jack of Hearts.  So yes, I flopped a set, but there was that nasty straight possibility out there.  I didn’t really believe that either of my opponents held either a 10-7 or Q-10 for a straight, but it’s possible.  Q-10 is certainly one of the hands that a novice might play against a raise.

I have a few choices, since I’m first to act.  If I bet out, I could take the pot right then and there, and win right around $80.  Not bad, but not the best result possible, either.  I’m a little nervous of a straight, but I can still fill up and make a full-house if the board pairs on either the turn or the river.  I’m sitting on about $280 in chips.  If I check I might induce a bluff from one or both of my opponents, and make a decision based on how I read them when they bet.  If that happens, I would have to decide whether to call, raise, or fold based on the information available to me.  It’s risky, but I decide to check.

My opponent to my immediate left bets $25.  It’s right about 1/3 of the size of the pot, and looks like a probing bet – to see where he stands.  The other opponent folds, and it’s now heads-up between me and my opponent.  I don’t think my opponent is sophisticated enough to bet that amount to make it look like a probing bet – in other words, hold the straight and only bet 1/3 of the pot.  There are 2 other possibilities he would probably do instead – either bet a significant amount like the size of the pot (probably $100 – I had seen him do that previously) or check.

His small bet seems less scary the more I think about it.

I decide to just call, and see what happens on the turn.  I might have raised here, but I really felt like he had a small piece of the flop – maybe he paired the 9 or something.  I believe I’m probably far enough ahead that I want to try and trap him if I can.

The turn is, believe it or not, another 8 – the 8 of Diamonds.  It’s a miracle card for me because it makes my hand so much stronger than it was.  I am now only afraid of my opponent holding pocket 8s – and honestly, I don’t give that much consideration.

With what amounts to the nuts (the best hand) I decide to check and see if my opponent will bet into me.

To my surprise, he bets $60.  Now I just want to do a little acting and hope it gives him courage.  I’m considering just calling and moving in for the kill on the river.  During my acting job I take a peek at my hole cards – I know exactly what I have, but I want my opponent to think I’m on some draw, and I’m looking again to see where I’m at.  As I’m looking at my hole cards, he announces “I’m already there.”

WOW.  That little bit of information is golden.  I could literally write a book about what those 3 words mean.  He would never say something like that if he held pocket 8s because he would want to trap me for all my chips.  To say something like that is to say “Hey, fold your hand – I don’t want you to draw out any more.”  It’s a sign of weakness – well, from this player specifically.  It was like he had just given me all his chips.

My autonomic nervous system acted up and before I even knew I said it, I uttered “I’m all in.”

He looked at me, kind of surprised, and said “You’re all in?”  I said, “Yes.”  I pushed my chips into the center next to the pot and the dealer counted them.

He then proceeded to sit and think for what amounted to about 5 minutes.  I told him to take all the time he needed, and I didn’t mind the wait.  In fact, if he were playing a sophisticated move to trap me with quad 8s, he would have immediately called my all-in – so by him thinking about it meant I was golden.

After a very long, very deliberated thought process, he calls and pushes his chips into the center.  The dealer deals the river – which happens to be another 8, and kind of made my heart sink a little bit – if my opponent were holding an 8 and hit trips just when I were trapping him, his hand just got a LOT better.

As it turns out, he turns over Ace-Jack, and I show him my pocket Jacks.  WOW.  To call an all-in with nothing more than top pair, top kicker is pretty weak.  Especially with a straight out there and the board had paired, making a full-house possible.

I scooped a HUGE pot, and after that he kept going on about how I’m going to give him the opportunity to win his chips back again later in the night.  I was very kind to him and let him believe that – but, alas, after he rebought in for another $300, he gave all that away within the next 2 hours and left the table, broke.

I felt bad.  That he didn’t rebuy again and stay at the table.  :)

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