Raise or Fold?

So this is one of my favorite hands that I’ve ever played, and it happened in a freeroll tournament near my home a couple of years ago.  I play poker at a small card room near my home, where if you have enough hours you can enter into a monthly freeroll tournament with a $5000 prize pool.  I think the 60 people who have the most hours get to play.  I almost always have enough hours.  :)

So it’s late in the tournament at the final table, and I’m doing fairly well.  I have an above average chip stack, and have gained a reputation as a tight/aggressive player.  (This is a reputation I foster at the cash games, by showing down with premium hands, and when beneficial, showing a good laydown.)

I’m in late position and there are 5 of us left at the final table.  I’m already in the money, and looking at two of the other players who have smaller chip stacks than I, hoping I can knock them out.  I watch as 3 players limp in (pay the big blind amount) preflop.  I’m last to act (on the dealer button) and I look down at King, Jack suited.  In late position I feel like I need to raise, hoping to either hit the flop or set myself up for a bluff on the flop.  I raise to 3 times the big blind, and only one other person calls.  One of the smaller chip stacks.  This is pretty good news for me.  He’s a good player, but he’s also been demoralized over the last few hours, as I’ve watched him go from chip leader to the smallest chip stack.  He’s been beat up and seems less than hopeful about his chances.

Now King Jack suited is a decent hand, but certainly vulnerable to so many possibilities.  That my opponent even called let’s me know that I should hope that an Ace doesn’t hit the flop – unless it puts me into a position of making a straight.  Even if a King hits, I’m still vulnerable to so many hands!  An Ace King or King Queen will beat me, not to mention the plethora of other possibilities that can dominate me.

Nonetheless, he calls, and the flop comes Six of Hearts, Deuce (2) of Diamonds, Jack of Clubs.  I like this flop, but it doesn’t exactly give me a warm fuzzy feeling.  Ace Jack is a very likely hand that my opponent could hold.  In fact, as he is first to act, he leads out with a pot sized bet.

Whoa!  He has something.  That Ace Jack possibility is almost all I can think about.  He is very unlikely to have a deuce or a six – I just can’t see him calling a preflop raise with Ace Deuce, or Ace Jack.  If he has pocket deuces, or pocket sixes, he would have my hand dominated – but wouldn’t he rather check here and try to set up a trap for me?  He has to put me on a big pair or maybe Ace King.  By letting me think my hand is good can only make him more money.  No, this is a sign that he hit the flop with top pair, I’m almost certain.  My King is a good kicker, but would my opponent call a preflop raise with anything less than Ace Jack?  I don’t think so.

With this bet, he’s committed a fairly large portion of his chips to the pot; not quite half as far as I can tell.  As a novice, especially in no-limit tournaments, I’m more than a little anxious in this situation.  I call “Time!” and think.  As I’m shuffling my chips with one hand I’m considering all of the possibilities.  I can’t just call his bet – that really does nothing for me at this point.  He means business, and there’s a pretty good chance that I’m behind.  Maybe he had a pair of Jacks?  No, again, with trip anything he would have checked.  Ace Jack almost has to be his hand, which means I’m beat unless I can pull off a bluff.

As I mentioned, he’s been demoralized, and almost seems to expect to lose.  I can see it in his face.  As I sat there watching him, the only thing I could think to do was to raise, representing Aces, Kings, or Queens.  Now if I raised enough to prevent him from having pot odds, I know he’ll think I’m trying to steal – it will be too obvious, and he would have to put me on a smaller pair than Jacks – meaning he would call.  If I bet a small amount, he’ll think I’m trying to give him pot odds to call, and might think I’m trying to make it easy for him – but if he’s thinking that far ahead (players often do), he may see through that as well.

Here’s the thing – I know he’s a sophisticated enough player to think ahead of me, but how far ahead?  Finally I decide to raise the minimum amount – double his initial bet.  It’s actually enough of his chip stack that he would have to become pot committed at this point, so combined with the idea that he may believe I’m trying to price him in, but still risking his tournament life, it may be enough to scare him off the hand.

I announce a raise and push the chips, and watch his reaction.  I remember he shook his head in defeat – and announced, “I guess my top pair/top kicker is no good.”  He did have Ace Jack after all, and would have beaten my King Jack.  I muck my hand and collect the chips, feeling good that I had worked it out.  :)

I ended up placing 3rd in that tournament.  It was one of my early wins that encouraged me to pursue poker.  :)