Pocket 9s

I have a bit of a love-hate relationship with pocket 9s.  Often, even from late position I’m nervous to raise with them, although they win often enough that raising is almost always justified.  There are a couple of simple situations that make raising the right decision.  First, is if you think you can narrow the field; often pocket 9s win unimproved against a smaller field.  Against several opponents, they will get outdrawn easily, as overcards (A, K, Q, J, T) will almost always devalue the hand.  Against a large field, you’re hoping to flop a set, or 3 of a kind.  A set of 9s is a monster hand, that has a great chance to win!

So today, on the love/hate spectrum I have to admit that pocket 9s has moved considerably towards the love side of the spectrum.  :)  I had pocket 9s today, on the button at a loose/passive table.  There were no real tricky players, and several people saw the flop during each hand.  So in this particular hand, 5 people limped before I looked down at my pocket 9s.  There’s no way I’m going to narrow the field; I can’t reasonably expect anybody to fold, after I raise since there will be at least 6 people in the pot, probably 8 including the blinds.  I decide that I’m just going to raise for value, and hope to flop a set with overcards to keep people in.  If I miss the flop completely, I can easily fold and be done with the hand.  Isn’t there an idiomatic phrase about the best intentions?

Well, as expected I raised, and everyone called, including the blinds.  The pot was huge preflop, with 16 small bets.  This was an 8/16 game, so that amounted to $128 before we even saw the flop.  I knew I was going to have to put up a fight for this pot, and stood a good chance to lose a lot of money.

The flop did miss me completely, although to my surprise there were no overcards!  The flop was 5d 3h 8c.  There was no flush draw yet possible, although there was the prospect of a straight draw.  Somebody could have had a small pocket pair like 33 or 55 or 88 and made a set.

The action was checked around to me, and I knew I had to bet.  I was really afraid of what the turn would bring, but at the present time I had reasonable evidence to believe I was ahead, so I had to bet out.  Everyone called.  So at this time there is now 24 small bets in the pot, or $192.

The turn was the 5s, meaning unless somebody had quad fives, the prospect of one set is now gone.  Nobody raised on the flop, so I had a pretty good feeling I was still way ahead, but extremely vulnerable to overcards and the ominous straight possibilities.

I only needed to survive one more card and I’d win this huge pot!  Nobody was trying to outplay me, or put pressure on me, so I was pretty sure I had a good chance, although I remember I kept reminding myself that I might easily lose this pot, and that it would be okay.  Everyone checked, and I bet again.  I think one, maybe 2 people folded, so there was about 18 big bets at this time.  I also remember telling myself that with 18 big bets in the pot, any reasonable draw would have pot odds, so I resigned to the possibility that I’m going to be outdrawn.

The river was a great card for me – the 2d.  Someone with 4-6 now had a straight, but I didn’t think that was such a great possibility.  Everyone checked, and fearing I was beat by such a large field, I also checked and showed my pocket 9s.  Everyone mucked and I raked a monster pot!  I estimated that there was nearly $300 in that one pot alone (now that I’m at my computer and can think clearly without adrenalin running through my blood, I know that there was 18 X 16 = $288 in the pot).

Anyway, I thought it was funny that I had resigned myself to losing this huge pot, but escaped some big draws and won the pot anyway.  Sometimes, pocket 9s can win in a multiway pot unimproved!  :)

Yet Another Hand Analysis

This particular hand happened last night, and for some reason I had a dream about it last night.  I figured that might justify writing a blog entry about it.  :)  Probably the reason it’s at least interesting is that it involves a little bit of preflop consideration involving a little math, and the character of the players at the table.

I’m at a pretty easy table, with lots of loose/passive players, and a couple of tight players.  I can only really say that one other player (besides myself) is tight/aggressive.  Towards the beginning of the session I lost 2 racks, but by the time this hand happened I was back up and a little bit ahead.  I’m in the big blind, the tight/aggressive player is on the small blind, to my immediate right.  The person sitting to my left is on tilt.  He’s been arguing with 2 other people at the table for most of the night, and is stuck at least $600 as far as I can know.

So like I said, I’m in the big blind, the person to my left limps from early position (under the gun), and the action is folded around to a late position player who is one of the tighter players  (Let’s call him “M”).  M raises, and the action is folded around to me.  I look down and see that I have Ace of Spades, Queen of Spades.  With a few players to sweeten the pot, this might be a hand I could cold-call a raise with; however, there really isn’t enough value, and AQ is really one of those hands you want to fold against a tighter player like M.

That being said, this is an interesting situation.  The only other person to enter the pot is on tilt, and way out of position.  Also, I have seen M come in raising with hands like Ace Ten offsuit, Ace Jack offsuit, and of course AQ and AK.  He could obviously have a big pocket pair.  This looks suspiciously like an attempt to isolate the player to my left; something M is definitely capable of.

I honestly don’t think I can fold at this point; the real question is, can I raise?  If I raise, the village idiot to my left (we’ll call him VI) might actually use some of his brain cells and fold.  I don’t want him leaving the pot; I need his dead money to generate value and make playing this hand worth it.  Whether I call or not, I am sure that VI is going to call, but there’s a chance I might lose everyone if I raise.  So I decide to call.

Interestingly, this happened after my post last night about whether I should protect a hand or build a pot; this clearly falls into the category of wanting to build a pot.  I believe there is a reasonable chance I’m ahead or might get ahead on the flop, and if I miss completely and M shows aggression I can dump it easily.  I’m more worried about catching an A or a Q and facing aggression from M.

The flop comes Ace of diamonds, 3 of clubs, 9 of hearts.  (Ad, 3c, 9h)

So here’s the thing – that seems like a great flop; however, I am now faced with the possibility that I am either way ahead or way behind.  If I check, I can wait and see what VI does, and then of course, what M does.  If I bet, I am fairly certain that VI will call, and I can see how M reacts.

If M has any Ace, like AT, AJ, AQ or AK he’ll raise and I’ll know where I’m at.  If he calls I’m going to play hard and fast, assuming he has a lesser Ace.  If he raises, I will be fairly certain he has one of the Ace-X hands, and I’ll have to consider the chance I’m ahead or behind, given the hands I can put him on:

• I have about a 1/4 chance that I’m splitting the pot with M if he has AQ.
• I have about a 1/4 chance that I’m behind if M has AK
• I have about a 50% chance that I’m ahead if M has AT or AJ.
• There are other possibilities that reduce those percentages quite a bit; if, say VI actually has one of those hands.  Still, I’m pretty certain he has no idea how much danger he’s in at this point.
• If M has a hand I haven’t put him on, I’m in a lot of trouble; he could very easily have pocket Aces, and I’d be paying him off.  That reduces those percentages also.

This is all happening on the flop, where the betting rounds are less expensive, so if I’m going to pay for this information, this is where I’ve decided to do it.

I decide to play fast and bet, and as expected the VI calls.  M, as expected, raises.  I just received the information I’ve paid for, and I believe I probably have about a 40-50% chance I’m ahead.  I’m definitely not folding; I could be aggressive, but I might still lose VI so I decide to just call.

The turn is a 3 of hearts; the board paired, but I don’t think it helped anybody, unless M filled up with pocket Aces and just made a full-house.  (My mind reels at the thought!)

I see M show his cards to his neighbor.  This is a really bad sign; usually when somebody shows their cards, they’re showing off, not showing a losing hand or one that is way behind.  My heart sinks, and I now believe there’s a really good chance that I’m behind either AK or something even more ominous like AA.  The fact is, that’s the only really dangerous hand I can put him on.  That he showed his neighbor is really bad; however, I doubt I can justify folding.  The only 2 hands I’m worried about are AK and AA.  The odds are pretty slim; however, I can’t shake the sinking feeling that I’m going to have to pay him off.

I check, VI checks, and M bets.  I call, and VI calls.

The river is the King of diamonds.  My heart sinks even more.  This has gone from vulnerable to even worse.  I check, VI checks, and to my surprise M also checks.  Almost immediately I recognize that I am probably winning the pot.  That he checked the river all but negates the possibility of him having AA or AK.  He would definitely bet with those hands.  (Why did he show his neighbor???  I didn’t ask, mainly because I didn’t want to give away that tell, which this time wasn’t quite as reliable as it has been in the past.)

I turn over my As Qs, and VI mucks talking about how much he wanted a Jack to appear.  (I have to laugh at that; if he had pocket Jacks he played that horribly, both preflop and post flop.  If he had something else like QT, he was drawing to a gut-shot against two of the best players at the table.  Either way it was about what I expected from a VI.)  I can tell by the look on M’s face that he’s beat; he turns over AJ offsuit, and says, “Nice hand.”

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