Advice to a friend

This is going to be a fun post.  I hope it isn’t too long, but I can tell already that I have a lot to say.

First, a little preface.  A new casino has opened up in Renton.  Actually, it’s not really a new casino, but a face lift on an old one.  The old Cascade Lanes closed a few months ago, and just recently reopened as a Hooter’s Restaurant/Casino.  I’ve been there a couple of times; I like to visit new casinos when they first open.

The first time I went there, I noticed something that turned out to be a good situation.  There were 3 players I recognized, who used to play at Cascade.  They seemed to be in almost every pot, and they were very aggressive.  I watched as they would raise and reraise almost to the river, and then lose to what seemed to me like a weak hand.

Then, I find myself with big slick – Ace King, and I raise preflop.  The next thing I know it’s been capped, as the 3 aggressive players get involved and start ramming and jamming.

The flop misses me, but it’s checked around to me (I’m one off of the button).  I also check, and the button player (who is one of the 3) bets.  It’s called around, and I decide to put them to the test and raise.  Button player reraises, and somebody else caps.  By now there are only 4 of us in the pot – the 3 amigos and myself.  I decide that it seems suspicious, so I call the flop bets, planning on folding the turn if my hand doesn’t improve.  There are no really obvious draws on the flop, so it’s possible they’re fighting over top pair or even 2 pair – I could be drawing dead with my overcards but the pot is pretty big now, an worth seeing the turn.  Understandably, I could be getting myself into trouble…

The turn also misses me, and again it’s checked around to me; I check, button bets and they keep ramming and jamming – I fold.

The river is checked around, and the button shows QJ offsuit – no pair, just Queen high and takes the pot.

That was when it kind of occurred to me – the players who were showing down with weaker hands (and winning) had caught on to what I had only just now caught on to – those 3 players were fighting aggressively for the pots and pushing out better hands.  On the turn, I figured I was probably better than 1 or maybe 2 of those players, but against 3 opponents, Ace high just can’t be good.  They were, whether they had planned it or not, building up big pots and fighting aggressively enough that against one player like myself, there’s a good chance I’ll fold.

It’s a form of collusion, but one that I wouldn’t want to prevent.  Basically, any observant is going to call them down with just about anything and win often enough to make it profitable – especially given the size pots these 3 guys were generating.

So, after that the game became very interesting – a couple of us were basically taking pot-shots at the 3 amigos, hoping to isolate them and call them down with top pair, or even Ace high.  More often than not we (the observant players) avoided each other and we found ourselves just taking turns.  By the time the 3 amigos left, they had added, based on what I saw in the 2 or so hours I played with them, about $700 in new chips to the table.

I’m amazed that *they* never caught on, that they were being played as much as they were trying to play the others at the table.

Okay, so enough about that.  Lastly, something came up last night that is worth writing about.  We (a friend and I) left Hooter’s at about 4:00am, and decided to go to Diamond Lil’s and play $8/$16 if a table was available.  First, though, my friend asked me for advice.  He has played a lot of $3/$6 and $4/$8, but never really played at the $8/$16 table before.  Not that it’s *that* different, but he asked for some tips, and I thought I would document them here:

Tip #1:  Tend to your bankroll

This might seem obvious, but here’s the thing – the variation at limit poker is pretty great, so I strongly advise sticking to good bankroll management habits when deciding which limits to play regularly.

I used to use the “300 X big bet” rule to decide what to play, but now use “500 X big bet.”  This means that in order to have a bankroll big enough to withstand the inevitable ups and downs, you want to have 300 times the big bet in your bankroll.  That’s not what you buy-in for, but what you have in reserve.  For example, to play 3/6, the big bet is $6 – so you need to have 300 X 6 = $1800 in your bankroll, or using my preferred 500 X bb rule, $3000.  To play 8/16, then of course, you want to have $8000.

This doesn’t mean that you can’t, like my friend wanted to do, take a shot at higher limits – but unless you have the bankroll to justify it, I wouldn’t play at those higher limits regularly.

Tip #2:  Know the Math!

This is fundamental, and doesn’t only apply to 8/16, but any limit game.  It doesn’t have to be overly complicated, but to a new player it might seem like a lot to keep track of.

Basically, you want to always know how many bets are in the pot, in order to know your pot odds.  I don’t want to go into great detail here, but generally speaking you want to memorize the odds required for draws based on the number of outs, and use that as a foundation to decide what to do (usually either call, fold, or raise).

As an example, let’s say you’re on the turn with an open-ended straight draw.  You have 8 outs to improve to the straight (4 cards on either end of the straight).  With 8 outs, you need at least 4.75:1 on your money to call.

This is kind of a difficult concept to explain, but let’s use a coin-flip example.  If someone wagered $1 on heads, so that if the coin lands on heads you give him $1, and if it lands on tails, he gives you $1, it’s a break-even bet.  If you do that enough times, you’re going to be pretty much even – you won’t win and you won’t lose, assuming the coin is fair, and lands on either side 50% of the time.

Now let’s say that he’ll give you $1.01 if it lands on tails, and you only have to give $0.99 if it lands on heads.  Now you have a winning situation, because even though you stand to win the same percentage of the time (50%), you will make more money when you do win.

This is the same in poker – if the amount of money in the pot, relative to your odds of improving are good, you want to stay in the hand.  If there isn’t enough money in the pot, you generally want to fold.  The math isn’t too difficult to generate, but it’s even easier to just memorize the odds charts that are available in just about any poker book.

In the open-ended straight draw example above, I know that with 8 outs I need at least 4.75:1 on my money to justify calling.  So if there are 5 or more bets in the pot, I’m good.

Having pot odds by no means guarantees winning – it just means you stand to win often enough that in the long run you’ll come out ahead.

This is the big factor, I believe, which separates winning players from losing players.  I believe that especially at low-limit hold’em, this is almost universally ignored by most players, especially those who claim that it’s impossible to win at small stakes hold’em.

Tip #3:  Don’t be afraid of aggression

This is definitely one tip which seems to apply more to the 8/16 game than the 3/6 and 4/8 games.  The players at Diamond Lil’s at least, seem to be more aggressive than the typical 3/6 players, and will put up a fight more often with a quality draw.

If you know the math, and the character of the players you’re against, aggression is nothing special.  It’s okay to take a stand with a quality hand and push back – it’s also okay to be the aggressor with a quality drawing hand.

I love situations where I have one of those monster draws like an open-ended straight draw and nut-flush draw (about 17 outs).  When I have a hand like that, especially on the flop, I love to ram and jam; with so many outs, and especially with several people still in the pot, you obviously don’t believe you’re the best *now* – but stand to draw to the best hand more than your fair share of the time (just about 37% I believe).  Because of that, it’s not only profitable, but just good poker to put up a fight.  You want to build up a nice big pot.  You won’t always win, but when you do you want to win the most.

When, or I should say if my draw gets there and I have to show, I’m amazed at how many players don’t understand that concept – and complain that I raised with nothing more than a draw.

It’s okay – no, it’s good poker to be aggressive!

Tip #4:  Slow down and think.

This is my last tip – just slow down and think.  Before you act on each round of betting, slow down and consider the action up to that point.  What are the hands you believe your opponent might have?  Even if you do have pot odds, is it possible there are others in the hand with a similar, but better draw – like a better flush draw?  How many people are in the hand?  Who is the aggressor?  Should you raise or check/raise to protect your hand?  There are just so many options open that you should consider as much as you can think of – so slow down, take your time, and be very deliberate.

There are other tips I could provide, but those were basically the highlights during our conversation.

Tells & Mindgames

So I haven’t written much lately, and there is a pretty good reason, having to do with the fact that several people from The Caribbean have mentioned that they’ve read this blog.  I’ve been playing with some ideas (if you’ve played with me lately at The Caribbean, you might have noticed I’ve been playing differently, more loose and aggressive).

So a really good friend of mine and I have been reading a book; well, actually he’s been reading it, and often reading it to me.  I’m not illiterate; he just likes to read aloud, and I like to talk about poker.  Anyway, I don’t know the name of the book, except it isn’t directly related to poker.  It has more to do with human behavior – specifically, the ways in which law enforcement personnel interrogate and obtain information from people.

So in a way it does have a lot to do with poker, and this book has provided hours of conversations between my friend and I about tells and human behavior at the poker table.

I haven’t paid too much attention to specific tells at limit poker in the past.  I guess I’ve always found them to be a little unnecessary, except for the most obvious.  Because of that I have tended to play a very mathematical game.  I know the odds I’m getting, and whether I can call or whether I should raise based on the math.

Lately however, especially since my friend and I have been reading this book, we’ve decided to compare notes about specific players and tells.  (This is one of the reasons I haven’t written much – especially since I know that there are people at The Caribbean who read this, and I don’t want to give anything away.)

Most of the “tells” I’ve relied on were not specific.  There are certain players, under the right situation, who I will call all the way to the river with Ace high, and win often enough to make it profitable.  It’s not that these players hold their mouths a certain way or use a specific hand to bet with – it’s not as specific as that.  It’s usually a bunch of information that is kind of nebulous, but put together, make my “spidey sense” tingle.  :)  I love saying that.

But when my friend and I, who also plays at The Caribbean, started comparing notes, and identifying specific tells from specific players, we found that much of our information matched.  We even learned new tells by sharing information – some of which seemed way too obvious to be true.

There was one player, let’s call him “A” who, according to my friend, has such an obvious tell that I didn’t believe it when he told me.  About a week or so ago, I sat at the table and watched – and when I was able to confirm the tell, it surprised me so much that the person next to me,  seeing the expression on my face said, “Did you just spot a tell?”  I said, “You saw it, too?”  Apparently I had just discovered something that he already knew.  I can’t remember specifically the remainder of the conversation, but I think he said something alluding to “keep it to yourself.”  He didn’t want others at the table to know, and neither did I.

So I’ve been trying to put together a database of sorts, especially since I play with the same players so often.  Right now it’s just in a spreadsheet, but when I sit down at a table, I can now look over notes about other players at the table, if I have them, or create new notes as necessary.  It turns out this is very handy.  (I love smart phones!)

It has also caused me to change my game quite a bit.  Based on certain tells, I’ve tried to find opportunities to isolate players, often with hands that might be weaker than I normally play – sometimes I’ve been right, and haven’t had to show my hand, but sometimes I’ve been wrong.  Even more interesting is when I’m called at the river and have to show a winning hand, but clearly a hand that is out of character for me to play.  I’ve seen more than a few raised eyebrows lately, and I think it’s funny.  I love waiting after the showdown at the river for someone to say “You raised preflop with THAT?!?”

So I would never change my game so much at 8/16, so I’ve been playing quite a bit more at The Caribbean over the past couple of weeks.

Also, especially since I’ve been paying a lot more attention to tells lately, I’m trying to work on reducing and hopefully eliminating many of my own.  I know several of them, and I think it’s funny when I give off a tell and I’m aware of it.

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