Experience Won

So I decided to go to Diamond Lil’s yesterday and play $8/$16 for a change.  It was a good experience; however, I only made $45 for 3 hours of play.  Technically, that’s at $15/hr, which is right at what I’m doing playing $3/$6, so I’m not unhappy.

I went with the knowledge that I’m willing to risk $400, which basically amounts to 2 buy-ins.  Most people seem to buy in for $200, which is one rack (100), of $2 chips.  It is essentially the same as playing $4/$8 with one rack of $1 chips (something I do frequently).  In fact, as I played I didn’t even think about the denominations of the chips, or the value of each bet; rather, I thought in terms of the number of bets.

I didn’t feel at all out of my league.  In fact, I saw some of the people I play $3/$6 with, at the $10/$20 table – people who I know don’t play well.  I felt confident at the $8/$16 table – enough that I felt like I stood a chance at making money from these people.  They tended to be tighter than the people at the $3/$6 tables, but not by much.  There were still fish at the table, and the good players were easy enough to recognize.  I was surprised that there were still people who played every hand; kind of like people I refer to as “any 2 cards” players.  These people tend to put a lot of money into the game, never folding bad hands preflop, and every once in a while they win big – but on average they slowly leak their money away.

I watched players at the $10/$20 table for a while, and felt like it wasn’t such a big jump to go from $8/$16 to $10/$20 – except my bankroll is woefully small for even $8/$16.  Still, as far as skill is concerned, I am confident I can play with these people and succeed.  I really wish that Diamond Lil’s was closer to my home.

This morning I played at The Caribbean again, $3/$6 limit, and came out $25 ahead for about 4 hours of play time.  What a grind!  I was reminded of the drastic differences between $8/$16 and $3/$6 – during one hand I was dealt pocket Aces, and raised preflop from middle position after 2 people limped in ahead of me.  A total of 6 players saw the flop – 3 people cold-called my raise in late position, and the big blind called, as well as the two early position limpers.  The flop came 4 of Hearts, 6 of Clubs, King of Diamonds.  I lead out betting, and I think 3 people called and 3 folded.

The turn was the eight of Spades, and one of the early position players bet out ahead of me.  I thought maybe she has a set of eights (3 of a kind); it’s a bold move to bet ahead of the aggressor with this kind of a board.  In fact, a good player would check, let me bet again, and then raise.  At any rate, I decided I would put her to the test and I raised, and she just called.  (That’s both confusing and suspicious, even at a low stakes table like $3/$6.)  Only the two of us saw the river, which was the 6 of diamonds.  Now the board paired, and I feared my opponent might have a full house.  She checked (even more confusing) and I called time to think about the situation.  She obviously didn’t understand the concept of check/raising, based on her actions on the turn; she either intended to check/raise me on the river (I don’t believe that) or she’s afraid of something.  If she had something like King, Eight and made two-pair on the turn, then she might be afraid that because the board paired, her two pair were counterfitted – but that only makes sense if she put me on Aces.  Otherwise, she would have to believe that her Kings were good.  What if she had something like 8, 4 and made two pair with that?  Then she might be afraid that her two pair, eights & fours were no good now that the board paired.  She might have put me on a high pocket pair, or even Ace-King and I have her beat.  That seemed to make the most sense to me, so I decided to bet out on the river.  It’s a little risky, but it definitely falls into the category of value bet.  I think I probably have her beat.  With a sigh she called.  I love it when my opponents sigh.

It turns out, yes, she did in fact have 8, 4 and made two pair on the turn.  My Aces & sixes stood up as the best hand.  Still, you don’t see many people calling a preflop raise with 8, 4 offsuit – or even 8, 4 suited at higher limits.  Those kinds of hands just don’t stand up often enough to be profitable.  Had the board not paired, I would have lost the hand.  That’s the thing about low limit poker; it’s a little unpredictable because your opponents can have almost anything!  It’s also the reason I do so well at $3/$6 – on average, at least a couple of people play bad enough to cold-call a raise preflop with horrible hands like 8, 4 offsuit.  The money those people put into the pot is called “dead money” and that is where so much of your profit comes from at low stakes poker.  That’s why I can take $15/hr from that game.  Still, you’re a lot less certain about the strength of your hand – It’s just as likely that my opponent could have held a 6 and made trip sixes to beat my Aces.  Even people who might otherwise be good players fall victim to the mentality that $3/$6 is nothing more than “bingo poker” and will decide to go ahead and join the crowd and play any 2 cards.  Those same people look at me suspiciously when I say that I actually make money at $3/$6, and have the records to prove it.  They just don’t believe it.  And I just keep taking their money.

In all, the only reason for staying at $3/$6 is the size of my bankroll.  It’s time for me to move up in limit to $8/$16.  I’m going to have to supplement my bankroll a little bit though, as I’m not going to be able to make enough playing $3/$6, fast enough.  In fact, I’m going to make it my goal to start playing at the $10/$20 as soon as I can bring my bankroll up to $6000.  After that, I’ll have to spend a lot of time at the $10/$20 tables; according to the “300XBB” rule, I’ll need $12000 to play at the $20/$40 tables – the highest limit tables in the state, except for Native American casinos.

Right now, those plans are a long ways away, and I have a lot to learn and a lot to earn before I can make those dreams into reality.  So for now, it’s back to the grind…