On the brink…

So I’ve been diligently working to build my bankroll, and I’m now just shy of $4700; in fact, I have $125 left to reach my goal of having enough to play at $8/$16 on a regular basis.  This calculation assumes the rule of having a bankroll that is equal to or exceeds 300 times the big bet in order to justify playing.  At $8/$16, 300X16 = 4800.  I haven’t played in a couple of days, but the next time I play, hopefully I’ll reach that goal.  This means less time spent at The Caribbean, and more time down at Diamond Lil’s.  I hope I’m ready.  The last thing I want to do is start playing at a higher limit, against players who are so much better than I, that I just lose my bankroll.

Still, I am really crushing the $3/$6 and $4/$8 games at The Caribbean, earning somewhere in the range of $15-$20 per hour.  That’s equivalent to just over 3 big bets per hour, and the standard expectation is about 1-2 big bets per hour.

I’m optimistic about playing $8/$16; however, I’m pretty sure that since the players are generally better, I won’t be making 3 big bets per hour; possibly more like 1 or even less (possibly even negative at first, until I get the hang of playing with better players).

So I have been thinking about the game at The Caribbean, wondering if the players are really so bad that on average I am able to make so much from those games.  According to some of the Two Plus Two books, you should make about 1-2 big bets per hour if you’re playing better than your opponents, on average.  With some help from my friend and some discussions online, I’ve come to the conclusion that the expectation at places like The Caribbean increases because of the bad beat, and Monte Carlo jackpots.  Basically, the bad beat is paid out whenever somebody with either a full house consisting of Aces full of Kings is beat by a better hand (e.g. quads, straight flush, royal flush).  This happens rarely, so the bad beat generally builds up quite a bit.  Right now I believe it’s at about $26,000 at The Caribbean.  When the bad beat is hit, the person who lost the hand gets half of the jackpot amount; the person who won gets a quarter, and the remaining players at all of the tables split the remaining quarter.  This happens to be the rules for The Caribbean.  It is often different at other places.

Additionally, whenever players hit quads, a straight flush, or a royal flush, they are paid according to the Monte Carlo jackpots.

These jackpots cause a lot of “dead money” to exist in each and every pot because players are playing hands like suited connectors, small pocket pairs, and even one-off or worse suited connectors out of position.

I remember a few months ago when I hit two straight flushes in one night.  It was truly amazing; I know people who have never had a straight flush, and I somehow hit two in one night.  After that happened, I started playing suited connectors, to my surprise and horror, almost all of the time, even from early position.  I had to make a very conscious effort to stop; to play better than that!  To play this way is just adding extra money to the pot that you’re most likely not going to get back in that hand.  This is what dead money is.  It’s like somebody walking by the table and just tossing in some extra chips to reward the person who gets to take down the pot.  When people consistently play hands with little pot equity, and small chances of reward, especially out of position, they are basically doing just that:  adding extra money to the pot for the winner.

So it’s great that all this dead money exists in pots at The Caribbean; when you do get paid, it’s generally a lot more than you would normally get when players are playing better.  It’s also the case that your bankroll goes up and down a lot more, because players play almost anything.  Raising with pocket Aces will often still see 4-6 people call your raise to see the flop, which decreases the value of such a monster hand.  When you win, you win big, but there’s also a better chance for somebody to catch two pair or something that might beat an unimproved pocket pair like Aces or Kings.

At any rate, I feel like I’m crossing a strange kind of boundary; I feel like I probably felt the first time I walked onto the school bus.  It’s time to grow up, to go play with the more skilled players, some of whom are actually playing to earn their mortgage payments.  I’ve tentatively played their game a few times.  I’ve tested the water a little bit, and now I’m ready to jump in.