When is it right to draw when you’re pretty sure you’re drawing dead?

One of the critical skills you learn, especially when playing small stakes hold’em is how to change your play based on the size of the pot.  Generally speaking, you want to fold many drawing hands and even weak made hands in small pots, but play aggressively in larger pots with the same hands.  So for instance, the following hand happened last night:

I’m on the button with Jh Th – so not a great hand, but worth seeing the flop from late position, especially when there are several limpers.  I really don’t want to see a raise with this hand.  Anyway, there were 6 people before me who limped, so I was #7, and the small blind also limps, making this what players call a “family pot” – which is when everybody at the table sees the flop.  The big blind, an aggressive player, raises.  I sense that he’s raising for value with a hand similar to mine – probably something like A-X suited, as it maximizes the value of such a hand inexpensively.  It is very likely that nobody is going to fold, and he’s just doubled the amount of money in the pot.

As expected, everyone calls around, and to my surprise the small blind reraises.  I don’t really mind a raise in a family pot; actually, I kind of like the size of the pot at this point, so I’m getting ready to use my chips to be aggressive with this pot.  I’m not going to give up easily.  As you probably expect, big blind caps and it is called all the way around and I find myself calling a capped betting round with JT suited.  Here’s the thing – there are 9 players, and it is capped, which means there are now 36 small bets (already 18 big bets).  This hand is going to cost me a lot of chips because I’m going after it aggressively – especially since I have position (being on the button).

The flop is 9h, Js, 8d.  This is just about enough to get me into trouble; I absolutely cannot fold this hand now, and am forced to go after this pot with aggression.  Small blind checks, big blind bets, and there are a couple of people who fold; I think maybe 3-4 people called.  I raised.  Small blind reraises, and big blind caps.  At this point I lost track of the number of bets; all I remember is that the pot was big enough to justify almost any reasonable draw and I had top pair with weak kicker, so I’m going to go after this pot with gusto.

I believe about 5 of us saw the turn, which was both beautiful and a little scary.  It was the 8 of hearts.  I now have a straight flush draw (8h 9h Th Jh) with 4 to a flush, but the board has also paired, which devalues my flush draw.  There’s little chance that I’m actually going to make a straight flush, and there’s some chance that somebody else in the hand is drawing to a better flush with Ah – something else of hearts.  Still, I have to go after this pot aggressively.  It’s just too big to give up on especially with a monster draw like this.

Big blind bets out, and I can’t remember how many people folded, but I raise and at this point the small blind decides to fold.  Big blind reraises and I cap.

The river is pretty much a blank:  4c.  It didn’t help me, and I can’t imagine that it helped anybody else.  My top pair is probably not good, and my flush didn’t get there.  Big blind bets, and I’m astounded as the other players in the hand fold.  I would have to be nearly 99% certain that I’m beat to give up at this point, and I’m not, so I call.

I’m amused and a little disappointed to see my opponent turn over pocket Jacks, which means he had a full-house on the turn, and I was nearly drawing dead.  I laugh, and show my JT suited.  Big blind expresses sympathy that my straight flush didn’t get there, but he’s clearly happy to draw such a big pot.  :)

The small blind, sitting to my immediate left starts getting upset, and criticizing my play telling me that I should have known I was drawing dead – that I was raising and reraising with the worst hand, and at the same time bragging about his expert fold!  To a reasonable player who understands pot odds, that was not an expert fold; rather, it was a horrible fold in such a big pot.  It’s a great fold in small pots, but if you know the math, you have to be, like I said, about 99% certain you are drawing dead to make such an “expert” fold.  There was no way to know that; the big blind could certainly have had an overpair like Aces, Kings, or Queens.  That the big blind was a decent player means he could have just as easily had any drawing hand like mine, assuming he understands that he should be aggressive in bigger pots.  There was no way at all I could be even 80% certain I was drawing dead.

I’m not about to explain myself to him; he doesn’t understand how to play very well, and certainly doesn’t understand the difference between playing a large pot and a small pot.  I did invest a lot of money into that hand, and I lost.  Kind of sucks, but the fact is, I’ll fold that hand when the pot is small, but if there’s enough money in the pot I’m going after it with aggression.  Small blind says he had a better flush draw than mine, and I didn’t really want hearts to get there – that’s fine; one of the reasons I play big pots so aggressively is because I just might get a better drawing hand to (incorrectly) fold; it maximizes my chances of winning.  That he fell victim to my coup is one reason I play big pots that way.  :)