Yet Another Hand Analysis

This particular hand happened last night, and for some reason I had a dream about it last night.  I figured that might justify writing a blog entry about it.  :)  Probably the reason it’s at least interesting is that it involves a little bit of preflop consideration involving a little math, and the character of the players at the table.

I’m at a pretty easy table, with lots of loose/passive players, and a couple of tight players.  I can only really say that one other player (besides myself) is tight/aggressive.  Towards the beginning of the session I lost 2 racks, but by the time this hand happened I was back up and a little bit ahead.  I’m in the big blind, the tight/aggressive player is on the small blind, to my immediate right.  The person sitting to my left is on tilt.  He’s been arguing with 2 other people at the table for most of the night, and is stuck at least $600 as far as I can know.

So like I said, I’m in the big blind, the person to my left limps from early position (under the gun), and the action is folded around to a late position player who is one of the tighter players  (Let’s call him “M”).  M raises, and the action is folded around to me.  I look down and see that I have Ace of Spades, Queen of Spades.  With a few players to sweeten the pot, this might be a hand I could cold-call a raise with; however, there really isn’t enough value, and AQ is really one of those hands you want to fold against a tighter player like M.

That being said, this is an interesting situation.  The only other person to enter the pot is on tilt, and way out of position.  Also, I have seen M come in raising with hands like Ace Ten offsuit, Ace Jack offsuit, and of course AQ and AK.  He could obviously have a big pocket pair.  This looks suspiciously like an attempt to isolate the player to my left; something M is definitely capable of.

I honestly don’t think I can fold at this point; the real question is, can I raise?  If I raise, the village idiot to my left (we’ll call him VI) might actually use some of his brain cells and fold.  I don’t want him leaving the pot; I need his dead money to generate value and make playing this hand worth it.  Whether I call or not, I am sure that VI is going to call, but there’s a chance I might lose everyone if I raise.  So I decide to call.

Interestingly, this happened after my post last night about whether I should protect a hand or build a pot; this clearly falls into the category of wanting to build a pot.  I believe there is a reasonable chance I’m ahead or might get ahead on the flop, and if I miss completely and M shows aggression I can dump it easily.  I’m more worried about catching an A or a Q and facing aggression from M.

The flop comes Ace of diamonds, 3 of clubs, 9 of hearts.  (Ad, 3c, 9h)

So here’s the thing – that seems like a great flop; however, I am now faced with the possibility that I am either way ahead or way behind.  If I check, I can wait and see what VI does, and then of course, what M does.  If I bet, I am fairly certain that VI will call, and I can see how M reacts.

If M has any Ace, like AT, AJ, AQ or AK he’ll raise and I’ll know where I’m at.  If he calls I’m going to play hard and fast, assuming he has a lesser Ace.  If he raises, I will be fairly certain he has one of the Ace-X hands, and I’ll have to consider the chance I’m ahead or behind, given the hands I can put him on:

• I have about a 1/4 chance that I’m splitting the pot with M if he has AQ.
• I have about a 1/4 chance that I’m behind if M has AK
• I have about a 50% chance that I’m ahead if M has AT or AJ.
• There are other possibilities that reduce those percentages quite a bit; if, say VI actually has one of those hands.  Still, I’m pretty certain he has no idea how much danger he’s in at this point.
• If M has a hand I haven’t put him on, I’m in a lot of trouble; he could very easily have pocket Aces, and I’d be paying him off.  That reduces those percentages also.

This is all happening on the flop, where the betting rounds are less expensive, so if I’m going to pay for this information, this is where I’ve decided to do it.

I decide to play fast and bet, and as expected the VI calls.  M, as expected, raises.  I just received the information I’ve paid for, and I believe I probably have about a 40-50% chance I’m ahead.  I’m definitely not folding; I could be aggressive, but I might still lose VI so I decide to just call.

The turn is a 3 of hearts; the board paired, but I don’t think it helped anybody, unless M filled up with pocket Aces and just made a full-house.  (My mind reels at the thought!)

I see M show his cards to his neighbor.  This is a really bad sign; usually when somebody shows their cards, they’re showing off, not showing a losing hand or one that is way behind.  My heart sinks, and I now believe there’s a really good chance that I’m behind either AK or something even more ominous like AA.  The fact is, that’s the only really dangerous hand I can put him on.  That he showed his neighbor is really bad; however, I doubt I can justify folding.  The only 2 hands I’m worried about are AK and AA.  The odds are pretty slim; however, I can’t shake the sinking feeling that I’m going to have to pay him off.

I check, VI checks, and M bets.  I call, and VI calls.

The river is the King of diamonds.  My heart sinks even more.  This has gone from vulnerable to even worse.  I check, VI checks, and to my surprise M also checks.  Almost immediately I recognize that I am probably winning the pot.  That he checked the river all but negates the possibility of him having AA or AK.  He would definitely bet with those hands.  (Why did he show his neighbor???  I didn’t ask, mainly because I didn’t want to give away that tell, which this time wasn’t quite as reliable as it has been in the past.)

I turn over my As Qs, and VI mucks talking about how much he wanted a Jack to appear.  (I have to laugh at that; if he had pocket Jacks he played that horribly, both preflop and post flop.  If he had something else like QT, he was drawing to a gut-shot against two of the best players at the table.  Either way it was about what I expected from a VI.)  I can tell by the look on M’s face that he’s beat; he turns over AJ offsuit, and says, “Nice hand.”