Some Corrections

I haven’t been back since my emotional outburst.  Having a few days off has actually been nice, but I’m planning on being back tonight, and ready to bring a zen-like attitude adjustment to the table.

I spent much of my time off reading more and studying, and have uncovered a fundamental flaw in my math.  The outs chart I’ve memorized only takes into account drawing one more card; in other words, it’s valid on the turn, when there is only one more card to come on the river.  When you’re on the flop and there are still 2 more cards to come the chart changes fairly significantly.  Additionally, I’m not raising as much as I should be, when I have an equity advantage.

An equity advantage happens when your draw stands to win more than your fair share of the pot.  In other words, let’s say that you flop a quality nut-flush draw, and therefore have 9 outs.  There are a total of 4 people including yourself involved in the hand.  If everything else were equal, you would have a 25% equity along with the other 3 people, in the pot.  That changes, however, when you have a draw as powerful as a flush draw with 9 outs, especially when you’re still on the flop.  You’ll complete your flush 34.97% of the time, so if you’ve calculated your outs correctly and still have the best hand when you complete your flush draw, then your share, or equity in the pot is about 35% – much more than the 25% equity that should be your fair amount.  In that situation, you stand to gain by raising for value.  You probably don’t have the best hand at the time, but you stand to make the best hand and win the pot more often than your opponents, so you should raise.

In light of that, I wanted to cover a couple of pretty basic scenarios (more for my own edification).

First is a quality open-ended straight draw, with 8 outs.  Let’s assume that the board hasn’t paired, and there’s no flush draw possible, so that I can work with 8 outs fairly confidently.  On the flop with 2 more cards to come, I need 2.18:1 (basically about 2.5:1) to play this hand.  I have a 31.45% chance of making the hand on either the turn or the river.  Since the flop still deals with small bets, I think it’s probably safe to assume I need 3:1 which means if 3 people limped preflop I have pot odds to play.  Heads-up is probably not profitable to play this hand unless I have showdown value, or there’s other reasons to continue with the hand.  Against 3 or more opponents (4 people or more total) I can raise for value in the right position.  In other words, if there are 4 of us and one person in early position bet the flop and 2 players called before I act, there are now 7 small bets – more than enough to justify playing the hand, and I’m in the right position to raise for value.

8 Outs:

• On the flop, need 3:1, 31%; bet/raise for value with 4+ people
• On the turn, need 5:1, 17%; bet/raise for value with 6+ people

If I raise and everyone calls, there will be 6 big bets in the pot on the turn.  If I raise and the initial bettor reraises, and we lose the other 2 opponents, there will still be 6 big bets on the turn, but now only 2 opponents.  Out of position, I should probably bet in order to encourage action, and get more money into the pot.  If someone raises I might be justified to reraise if I believe the other players will stay in the pot.  If I have reason to believe that the other players will fold to aggression, or the prospect of facing 2 bets cold, I might be better off just calling.

Either way I’m priced in on the turn, as I need 4.75:1 (basically 5:1) and stand to complete my draw 17.39% of the time.  In both cases, I no longer have an equity advantage, but I do have pot odds to draw, so if the action is checked to me I can safely check and take a free card.

If the initial bettor bets into me and the 2 other opponents have folded, there will be 7 big bets; enough to call.

The next common scenario is similar, but it’s a quality nut-flush draw with 9 outs.  Similar to the straight draw, on the flop I need 1.86:1 (basically 2:1) to play the draw profitably, so as long as there are 2 or more people in the pot I’m probably good.  On the flop, 9 outs will complete about 34.97% of the time, so against 3 or more opponents I have an equity advantage and can raise for value.

With these draws, focus on trying to build a bigger pot, rather than knocking people out.  If they’ve called one bet and I’m in late position I can probably raise for value, but don’t force them to face 2 bets cold unnecessarily.  Build a big pot and hope the draw completes.

On the turn, I need 4.112:1 (basically 4.5:1) to play, and will complete the flush about 19.56% of the time.  Now, as long as there are 4 or more opponents, I can bet and/or raise for value.

9 Outs:

• On the flop, need 2:1, 35%; bet/raise for value with 3+ people
• On the turn, need 4.5:1, 20%; bet/raise for value with 6+ people

Both of these scenarios fit very nicely with a concept that I use frequently – I will often raise on the flop with a quality draw when in late position, hoping for a free card on the turn.  The bottom line is that with a flush draw and 4 or more opponents I don’t care as much for the free card, if at least 4 people go to the river.  The pot odds, as well as implied odds mean I’m more than justified to both play the hand, as well as raise for value.  It’s okay to be pretty aggressive in that situation.  With the straight draw, I might be a little more sensitive to taking the free card; it stands to win less often, and in many situations I probably don’t have the equity advantage on the turn that I did on the flop.  Under the right circumstances, I’m probably better of taking the free card with the straight draw.  The same is true for the flush draw, with fewer opponents.

Confession Time

Well, last night was kind of a milestone for me.  I feel like I sank to a new low, and I lost sleep because of it.

Ever since I started playing poker, I’ve held a pretty simplistic view of my competitors.  I feel like I’m somehow more informed, that because I try to read and practice, and am open to learning how to play the game better, I’m smarter.  Lately I’ve been playing a lot more than I normally play; usually around 10-12 hours per day, and inevitably you start to learn more and more about the personal lives’ of the people  you play with every day.  A couple of times people have offered to buy me a drink, and I’ve turned them down for two reasons:  first, I don’t drink at the poker table, and second, I don’t want to feel like I owe them anything or have to be friends with them.  I don’t want to go easy on anybody, and don’t expect anybody else to go easy on me.

After last night, I had to ask myself if this was actually making me a better person, and right now the answer is definitely no.  I had taken a few bad beats, and was becoming increasingly frustrated.  I had been at the table for about 9 hours, and was tired and stuck about $200.  I should have left much earlier, but somehow always found a reason to stay.  I hadn’t played many hands, except about 10 minutes prior to the event I’m about to describe, I had pocket Queens, made a set, and lost to a runner-runner flush draw.  I just about went into orbit.

So the next playable hand I had was pocket Kings.  It’s raised ahead of me, and I reraise making it 3 bets to go.  Another player after me caps, making it 4 bets to go.  The flop is pretty good; 10-8-6 rainbow.  An early position player bets into me.  He’s not someone I think of as a good player; he will bet into the preflop aggressor with top pair hoping it’s good often, so I’m not very afraid of him.  I don’t consider him a very smart player.  In fact, I’ve written about him before; he’s the person who told me as he was drawing to a flush and I flopped a set of Kings, “You can get out of this for cheap” trying to get me not to bet the turn so he could draw to his flush without paying.

Anyway, as I said, he bets into me and I raise.  Everyone else gets out of the way and he reraises.  So I figure he’s probably got two pair like 10-8 or 10-6, maybe even 8-6.  He’s not the kind of player who will play a draw aggressively, so I figure he’s probably got 2 pair.

I call, and the turn is a J, and again he bets out.  I raise and he reraises.  At that point I give consideration that he might actually have been aggressive with an open-ended straight draw and got there with the J.  I ask him, do you *really* have a 9?  He answers, “Pay and I’ll show.”  I’m really on tilt, and I say “I’ve got a big pocket pair, so I’ll just call you down to the river.”

The river is another 7, pairing the board.  He looks pretty disappointed, and I figure his 2 pair (probably 10-8) just got counterfeited.  As he grabs chips he’s watching me, and I grab chips and say “I call” before he even puts chips out.  He then says, “Check.”

I turn over my pocket Kings, and he shows 10-8.

And then I said what would keep me up most of the night, wondering how I could let myself sink so low.  I said, “You know, you deserved that!”  And almost immediately other players at the table came to his defense, and as I realized what I had said, I tried to apologize.  My friend Tim took me outside to cool off.

So here’s this guy, who is really a nice guy – I don’t know him outside of the poker table, and I still think he’s a pretty bad player, but he’s there to have fun and enjoy himself.  More often than not he loses money, but he does so without getting upset at anybody, and still wears a smile.  He probably works 8 hours a day and relaxes afterward with a drink and gambling.  And here I am taking things too seriously, and verbally abusing him when I win a hand.  I felt like I had sunk to a new low and needed to rethink myself, what I was doing, and my image at the table.  This is not good soul food.

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