Yet Another Hand Analysis

This particular hand happened last night, and for some reason I had a dream about it last night.  I figured that might justify writing a blog entry about it.  :)  Probably the reason it’s at least interesting is that it involves a little bit of preflop consideration involving a little math, and the character of the players at the table.

I’m at a pretty easy table, with lots of loose/passive players, and a couple of tight players.  I can only really say that one other player (besides myself) is tight/aggressive.  Towards the beginning of the session I lost 2 racks, but by the time this hand happened I was back up and a little bit ahead.  I’m in the big blind, the tight/aggressive player is on the small blind, to my immediate right.  The person sitting to my left is on tilt.  He’s been arguing with 2 other people at the table for most of the night, and is stuck at least $600 as far as I can know.

So like I said, I’m in the big blind, the person to my left limps from early position (under the gun), and the action is folded around to a late position player who is one of the tighter players  (Let’s call him “M”).  M raises, and the action is folded around to me.  I look down and see that I have Ace of Spades, Queen of Spades.  With a few players to sweeten the pot, this might be a hand I could cold-call a raise with; however, there really isn’t enough value, and AQ is really one of those hands you want to fold against a tighter player like M.

That being said, this is an interesting situation.  The only other person to enter the pot is on tilt, and way out of position.  Also, I have seen M come in raising with hands like Ace Ten offsuit, Ace Jack offsuit, and of course AQ and AK.  He could obviously have a big pocket pair.  This looks suspiciously like an attempt to isolate the player to my left; something M is definitely capable of.

I honestly don’t think I can fold at this point; the real question is, can I raise?  If I raise, the village idiot to my left (we’ll call him VI) might actually use some of his brain cells and fold.  I don’t want him leaving the pot; I need his dead money to generate value and make playing this hand worth it.  Whether I call or not, I am sure that VI is going to call, but there’s a chance I might lose everyone if I raise.  So I decide to call.

Interestingly, this happened after my post last night about whether I should protect a hand or build a pot; this clearly falls into the category of wanting to build a pot.  I believe there is a reasonable chance I’m ahead or might get ahead on the flop, and if I miss completely and M shows aggression I can dump it easily.  I’m more worried about catching an A or a Q and facing aggression from M.

The flop comes Ace of diamonds, 3 of clubs, 9 of hearts.  (Ad, 3c, 9h)

So here’s the thing – that seems like a great flop; however, I am now faced with the possibility that I am either way ahead or way behind.  If I check, I can wait and see what VI does, and then of course, what M does.  If I bet, I am fairly certain that VI will call, and I can see how M reacts.

If M has any Ace, like AT, AJ, AQ or AK he’ll raise and I’ll know where I’m at.  If he calls I’m going to play hard and fast, assuming he has a lesser Ace.  If he raises, I will be fairly certain he has one of the Ace-X hands, and I’ll have to consider the chance I’m ahead or behind, given the hands I can put him on:

• I have about a 1/4 chance that I’m splitting the pot with M if he has AQ.
• I have about a 1/4 chance that I’m behind if M has AK
• I have about a 50% chance that I’m ahead if M has AT or AJ.
• There are other possibilities that reduce those percentages quite a bit; if, say VI actually has one of those hands.  Still, I’m pretty certain he has no idea how much danger he’s in at this point.
• If M has a hand I haven’t put him on, I’m in a lot of trouble; he could very easily have pocket Aces, and I’d be paying him off.  That reduces those percentages also.

This is all happening on the flop, where the betting rounds are less expensive, so if I’m going to pay for this information, this is where I’ve decided to do it.

I decide to play fast and bet, and as expected the VI calls.  M, as expected, raises.  I just received the information I’ve paid for, and I believe I probably have about a 40-50% chance I’m ahead.  I’m definitely not folding; I could be aggressive, but I might still lose VI so I decide to just call.

The turn is a 3 of hearts; the board paired, but I don’t think it helped anybody, unless M filled up with pocket Aces and just made a full-house.  (My mind reels at the thought!)

I see M show his cards to his neighbor.  This is a really bad sign; usually when somebody shows their cards, they’re showing off, not showing a losing hand or one that is way behind.  My heart sinks, and I now believe there’s a really good chance that I’m behind either AK or something even more ominous like AA.  The fact is, that’s the only really dangerous hand I can put him on.  That he showed his neighbor is really bad; however, I doubt I can justify folding.  The only 2 hands I’m worried about are AK and AA.  The odds are pretty slim; however, I can’t shake the sinking feeling that I’m going to have to pay him off.

I check, VI checks, and M bets.  I call, and VI calls.

The river is the King of diamonds.  My heart sinks even more.  This has gone from vulnerable to even worse.  I check, VI checks, and to my surprise M also checks.  Almost immediately I recognize that I am probably winning the pot.  That he checked the river all but negates the possibility of him having AA or AK.  He would definitely bet with those hands.  (Why did he show his neighbor???  I didn’t ask, mainly because I didn’t want to give away that tell, which this time wasn’t quite as reliable as it has been in the past.)

I turn over my As Qs, and VI mucks talking about how much he wanted a Jack to appear.  (I have to laugh at that; if he had pocket Jacks he played that horribly, both preflop and post flop.  If he had something else like QT, he was drawing to a gut-shot against two of the best players at the table.  Either way it was about what I expected from a VI.)  I can tell by the look on M’s face that he’s beat; he turns over AJ offsuit, and says, “Nice hand.”

What a grind!

When I was in Las Vegas for Fan Appreciation Weekend 2008, I was anxious to play some no-limit Texas Hold’em, and maybe learn a thing or two from some of the local professionals.  Around my home town near Seattle, about all I have that is easily and consistently available to me is $3-$6 limit Texas Hold’em, which I’ve become pretty good at – enough to win consistently and make more than a minimum wage job would provide.

I wasn’t sure what to expect in Las Vegas; I had played a little bit of poker there in previous years, but it is now officially a passion, and this was the first year I felt I might actually have a chance at competing with others.

The first thing I noticed when I sat down to the table at Binion’s was that I counted what appeared to be $6,000 to $8,000 at the table, and this was only $1-$2 no-limit.  That’s a pretty significant amount of money available to be won!

The next thing I noticed was that the players were significantly better than the players I normally come across around Seattle.  I managed to keep from losing my entire bankroll, but on one of the first nights I did manage to get stuck about $400.  I tried my best to learn from my mistakes, and come back to the table smarter and wiser.  I managed to make up for my losses that night, and I learned an awful lot about no-limit cash games.  Or so I thought.  :)

I now understand how people can make a living by playing poker.  When there’s anywhere from $5,000 to $10,000 on the table on any given night, if you’re only a little better than the average player you stand to make some good money.

Contrast this with poker near my home, where you’re lucky to see $1,000 on the table at a $3-$6 limit table.  According to some of the “Two Plus Two Publishing” books I’ve read, you’re doing pretty well if you’re making on average 1-2 big blinds per hour playing limit poker.  This means $6-$12 per hour is pretty good.  I’m averaging about $15 per hour, so I know I’m much better than the average players I play with – but that’s just not enough to make a living.  I’m not quitting my day job anytime soon.  :)

After returning from Las Vegas, I got right back into my poker routine.  I usually go to the casino after work, from maybe 7:00pm to 10:00pm each night.  On my first night back I was up $60.  I went away feeling like I had just come back from a job.  For 3 hours of “work” $60 meant about $20 per hour – which is way better than expected.  But what a GRIND!  The next night I left almost $200 up, and then last night I lost $200.  So it does even out.  I’m anxious to get back to Vegas where I can play some poker that has some real potential – both to win and lose.  :)

In the meantime I’m reading everything I can about no-limit cash games.

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