Finding and Fixing Problems

So in preparation for the 2009 WSOP, I’ve been really trying to determine where my problems are, and obviously fix them.  I’ve been reading and practicing, and analyzing, and practicing, and discussing, and practicing.  Did I mention I’ve been practicing?  I’ve tried to plan time for cash play, in order to keep increasing my bankroll, time for reading, and time for practice.

One of my problems has to do with the differences between limit hold’em and no-limit hold’em, or more specifically, tournament play.  Limit Texas Hold’em is my game; that’s where I make my money.  I’m averaging about $15 per hour right now, which is actually a ridiculous amount for $3-$6 and $4-$8 limit Texas Hold’em, except I’m playing with incredibly poor players.  Some of the things I get away with in the cash games I’m playing right now would likely cost me money against better players.  I’m able to value bet on the river with most players because on average, my hands are so much better than my opponents.  That’s not vanity; I am simply a lot more selective about what hands I play.  If I’m in the pot, I am usually either way ahead, or on a really good draw that has a decent chance to beat what I believe my opponent has.

I am very comfortable playing a long-term game.  In other words, I’m pretty sure that even if I am beat when somebody draws out on my set of Aces to make their straight or flush, over the long run I’ll win more often with my hand than my opponents will.  By finding ways to protect my hand – I can do my best to force my opponent into a situation where they don’t have pot odds.  Mistakes that my opponent makes, is, over the long run, profit for me.

In a tournament this concept is not very beneficial.  The thing about a tournament is, it is absolutely NOT a long-term game.  It’s a tournament, and I don’t have the benefit of getting more money out and bringing more chips to the table, except under certain circumstances (as when rebuys are allowed).  But for the most part, once I am eliminated, I’m finished.  At the same time, once my opponent is eliminated, they are finished.

It is precisely the very thing I am most comfortable with; knowing and playing the long-term odds, which is taken away from me in tournament poker.  For this reason, when I sit down at a tournament, I begin to feel very uneasy.

So one of the concepts that has helped me to ground myself in some theory at a tournament table is the concept called “The Gap” which is described in one of the Two Plus Two books:  “Tournament Poker for Advanced Players.”  This concept gives you a framework in which to reconcile the conflicting concepts that, on one hand, I want to play conservative because once I’m out of chips I’m finished – but on the other hand, I want to be aggressive because once my opponent is out of chips, they’re finished.  According to gap theory, there is a range of hands that you would initiate a raise with.  Because of this, a good player will want to have a hand that is better on average, than a hand they would normally raise with, in order to call a raise.  It’s a concept that most poker players know intuitively.

So against other players, especially during periods where your opponents are playing tight, as in when everyone is on the bubble (just about to make it to a paying position), you will want to raise with your hands more often – to take advantage of your opponents tendency to fold.

So this brings me to a hand I played in a tournament last weekend.  I had the 2nd largest chip stack; the person with the most chips was to my immediate left.  I had made it to the final table, and was already in a paying position.  Based on chip sizes, I was well on my way to at least 2nd place; all I had to do was cruise on in and play smart.

We’re down to 6 players and everybody is playing pretty tight.  I look down at pocket 9s after everybody up to me folds.  I’m on the dealer button which means that on the flop and later rounds of betting I’ll get to be last to act.  Now being 2nd in chip stack isn’t that significant – I only had about 10 big blinds.  I couldn’t just limp in with my pocket 9s; I had to raise, but how much?  I went ahead and raised to 3 big blinds.  To my surprise, the person to my left (small blind) reraised – almost putting me all-in.  Big blind folds, and I have no real choice but to go all-in.  I had hoped my opponent had Ace King or something like that, but in fact, it turns out he had pocket jacks.  Just enough to knock me out of the tournament.

As it turns out, after some checking and talking and asking for advice, my mistake was that with only 10 big blinds, I should have shoved all-in immediately.  It might have caused my opponent to fold (probably not) but any other action would eventually lead to me going all-in anyway.  My action was based in-part on fear and a desier to play my opponent post-flop.  In tournaments I have to put that fear away and make my plays based on my chip stack and my opponents.

Raise or Fold?

So this is one of my favorite hands that I’ve ever played, and it happened in a freeroll tournament near my home a couple of years ago.  I play poker at a small card room near my home, where if you have enough hours you can enter into a monthly freeroll tournament with a $5000 prize pool.  I think the 60 people who have the most hours get to play.  I almost always have enough hours.  :)

So it’s late in the tournament at the final table, and I’m doing fairly well.  I have an above average chip stack, and have gained a reputation as a tight/aggressive player.  (This is a reputation I foster at the cash games, by showing down with premium hands, and when beneficial, showing a good laydown.)

I’m in late position and there are 5 of us left at the final table.  I’m already in the money, and looking at two of the other players who have smaller chip stacks than I, hoping I can knock them out.  I watch as 3 players limp in (pay the big blind amount) preflop.  I’m last to act (on the dealer button) and I look down at King, Jack suited.  In late position I feel like I need to raise, hoping to either hit the flop or set myself up for a bluff on the flop.  I raise to 3 times the big blind, and only one other person calls.  One of the smaller chip stacks.  This is pretty good news for me.  He’s a good player, but he’s also been demoralized over the last few hours, as I’ve watched him go from chip leader to the smallest chip stack.  He’s been beat up and seems less than hopeful about his chances.

Now King Jack suited is a decent hand, but certainly vulnerable to so many possibilities.  That my opponent even called let’s me know that I should hope that an Ace doesn’t hit the flop – unless it puts me into a position of making a straight.  Even if a King hits, I’m still vulnerable to so many hands!  An Ace King or King Queen will beat me, not to mention the plethora of other possibilities that can dominate me.

Nonetheless, he calls, and the flop comes Six of Hearts, Deuce (2) of Diamonds, Jack of Clubs.  I like this flop, but it doesn’t exactly give me a warm fuzzy feeling.  Ace Jack is a very likely hand that my opponent could hold.  In fact, as he is first to act, he leads out with a pot sized bet.

Whoa!  He has something.  That Ace Jack possibility is almost all I can think about.  He is very unlikely to have a deuce or a six – I just can’t see him calling a preflop raise with Ace Deuce, or Ace Jack.  If he has pocket deuces, or pocket sixes, he would have my hand dominated – but wouldn’t he rather check here and try to set up a trap for me?  He has to put me on a big pair or maybe Ace King.  By letting me think my hand is good can only make him more money.  No, this is a sign that he hit the flop with top pair, I’m almost certain.  My King is a good kicker, but would my opponent call a preflop raise with anything less than Ace Jack?  I don’t think so.

With this bet, he’s committed a fairly large portion of his chips to the pot; not quite half as far as I can tell.  As a novice, especially in no-limit tournaments, I’m more than a little anxious in this situation.  I call “Time!” and think.  As I’m shuffling my chips with one hand I’m considering all of the possibilities.  I can’t just call his bet – that really does nothing for me at this point.  He means business, and there’s a pretty good chance that I’m behind.  Maybe he had a pair of Jacks?  No, again, with trip anything he would have checked.  Ace Jack almost has to be his hand, which means I’m beat unless I can pull off a bluff.

As I mentioned, he’s been demoralized, and almost seems to expect to lose.  I can see it in his face.  As I sat there watching him, the only thing I could think to do was to raise, representing Aces, Kings, or Queens.  Now if I raised enough to prevent him from having pot odds, I know he’ll think I’m trying to steal – it will be too obvious, and he would have to put me on a smaller pair than Jacks – meaning he would call.  If I bet a small amount, he’ll think I’m trying to give him pot odds to call, and might think I’m trying to make it easy for him – but if he’s thinking that far ahead (players often do), he may see through that as well.

Here’s the thing – I know he’s a sophisticated enough player to think ahead of me, but how far ahead?  Finally I decide to raise the minimum amount – double his initial bet.  It’s actually enough of his chip stack that he would have to become pot committed at this point, so combined with the idea that he may believe I’m trying to price him in, but still risking his tournament life, it may be enough to scare him off the hand.

I announce a raise and push the chips, and watch his reaction.  I remember he shook his head in defeat – and announced, “I guess my top pair/top kicker is no good.”  He did have Ace Jack after all, and would have beaten my King Jack.  I muck my hand and collect the chips, feeling good that I had worked it out.  :)

I ended up placing 3rd in that tournament.  It was one of my early wins that encouraged me to pursue poker.  :)